In a context where the stock markets are experiencing a marked dynamic, Amundi has organized a roadshow dedicated to American equities. Initiated in Geneva before passing through Monaco and Paris, Vincent Denoiseux, Head of Investment Strategy at Amundi ETF, Index & Smart Beta, and Christophe Barraud, CEO of Market Securities Monaco S.A.M., presented investors with an in-depth vision of the opportunities and challenges inherent in the American markets.
A Favorable Environment for US Equities
This initiative comes at a time of strong demand for these shares, particularly due to Donald Trump's return to the presidency and the resilience of the US economy.
Three Investment Approaches
The year 2024 saw a renewed interest in US equities, supported by the performance of large technology companies and a globally robust macroeconomy. In response to this trend, Amundi has launched several new ETF products aligned with the MSCI USA at competitive costs.
To simplify, roadshow participants can essentially choose between three main distinct investment strategies, each responding to a specific approach to the market:
- Traditional Investment via the MSCI USA Index: A segment of investors has expressed a strong appetite for a faithful replication of benchmark indices such as the MSCI USA or the S&P 500. These investors favor a traditional approach, betting on the continuous growth of the American market without sectoral discrimination.
- Overweighting Big Tech and Mega Caps: The rise of technology companies and their growing weight in the indices has led some investors to increase their exposure to MSCI USA mega-caps. Amundi has responded to this demand by offering a specific ETF exposed to the 36 largest US market capitalizations, allowing for a targeted focus on leading companies in the technology sector.
- Diversification through Large Caps, Excluding Mega Caps: A third group of investors is more skeptical about the current valuations of Big Tech and is seeking to diversify its exposure while remaining invested in the US market. For them, Amundi has developed an ETF excluding mega-caps, thus offering an alternative to position themselves on large companies without being disproportionately exposed to the tech giants.
Macroeconomic Analysis and Strategic Positioning
Christophe Barraud, CEO of Market Securities and key speaker of the roadshow, shared his macroeconomic analysis of the US economy, highlighting several factors likely to influence the stock markets in 2025. In particular, he underlined the impact of growing trade tensions, which could lead to increased volatility in the short term. The Trump administration, having announced a review of trade agreements, could introduce additional customs barriers, making the economic situation more uncertain.
In addition, the seasonality of the markets was also mentioned. Traditionally, February is less favorable for stocks than January, which calls for increased caution. Moreover, the period following the inauguration of a new president is historically marked by a consolidation of the indices, after the initial optimism linked to campaign promises.
Another crucial factor identified concerns the concentration of stock market indices on a few dominant stocks. The phenomenon of Big Tech outperformance has contributed to a structural imbalance that could result in market adjustments in the event of revisions to the growth prospects of these companies.
Specific features of the Roadshow in Monaco and Paris
Investor reactions varied depending on the cities visited. In Monaco, the audience was mainly composed of family offices and wealth managers, whose allocations are traditionally more oriented towards the major long-term themes. There was a strong interest in US equities, particularly among those whose portfolios are benchmarked against the MSCI World.
In Paris, on the other hand, the discussions reflected the concerns of asset managers more. They were more concerned about the high valuation levels and expressed particular interest in strategies to reduce their exposure to the most speculative stocks.
An Innovative Alternative: The Ex Mega Cap
Vincent Denoiseux presented an innovative approach as opposed to traditional equal-weight index strategies. Rather than systematically distributing weightings, this methodology excludes mega-caps to refocus exposure on large-cap companies outside Big Tech. This approach addresses the main concern of investors who believe that the excessive dominance of technology companies in current indices creates asymmetric risk.
The Ex Mega Cap index thus allows for more balanced exposure, reducing volatility while maintaining a growth dynamic in line with the US economy. This ETF is a relevant strategic tool for those who wish to maintain an offensive positioning without being overexposed to technology stocks.
Amundi's roadshow made it possible to clearly identify investors' expectations and to offer solutions adapted to different risk profiles. Sustained interest in US equities is not waning, but a finer segmentation of investment strategies is becoming necessary to meet the challenges of valuation and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Thanks to a diversified and competitive ETF offering, Amundi continues to support investors in their strategic decisions, offering them flexible alternatives to adjust their exposure to US markets in a constantly changing environment. The success of this roadshow confirms the central role of institutional and strategic support in optimizing portfolio management in times of economic change.
