Gérald Mathieu, CEO of Barclays Monaco, and Valérie Génin, Head of Investments, were interviewed about the outlook for private wealth management in 2025.
Reflecting on 2024, what were the most significant trends or challenges that impacted your firm and the private wealth management industry? How have these influenced your strategy for 2025?
Gerald Mathieu: We have continued to see increased allocation of UHNWIs, family offices and institutional funds towards sustainable investing.
In addition, we’re seeing more UHNWIs and their families are looking for integrated support and education for the next generation. To help clients we have been running events for younger generations covering topics such as investing, philanthropy and impact investing.
New generations do not want to be treated as their parents were, they do not want to inherit the risk profile of their predecessors. They seek a more agile, attentive bank, willing to share ideas. We offer them not just a single point of contact but multiple interfaces with various expertise. Clients should feel that the entire bank is working in their service.
Are you seeing more younger clients in Monaco?
Gerald Mathieu: The traditional face of Monaco is changing. We have a growing number of younger clients who have set up their family home here. Given all the principality has to offer – international schooling, two ports for superyachts, as well as safety and stability, it’s not surprising that there is such demand to purchase a home here. However, many of our clients have a footprint that crosses multiple borders, so our global capabilities are important to all of them.
We’re also seeing an increasing number of women making financial decisions on behalf of their families, as well as female entrepreneurs setting up a base in Monaco.
How do you work with entrepreneurs?
Gerald Mathieu: For some entrepreneurs, the focus is on growing and then selling their business. While for others, the emphasis is on growing and then transferring control to the next generation.
In the growth phase of a business, we work with entrepreneurs to provide them with access to capital to fund business growth. A benefit of being part of the wider Barclays Group is that we are able to connect them with like-minded individuals and offer access to a wide entrepreneurial ecosystem.
Of course, we also support clients as they begin to consider a business sale and guide them through that complex process by leveraging the expertise from across the Barclays Group.
Planning for the future is an important element and we educate, guide and advise on how to preserve and grow wealth in an efficient manner. We typically refer to three buckets: Liquidity, Lifestyle and Legacy to help clients frame their future in the short, medium and long-term. Each client will have their own vision of how to allocate their funds, the key is to strike the right balance so they’re properly set up for the future.”
What benefits does being a global business bring to your clients in Monaco?
Gerald Mathieu: Many of our clients have a footprint that crosses multiple borders - they may live in Monaco, have children at school in the UK and a business in the Middle East. We’re set up to serve our clients regardless of jurisdiction, with the expertise of the wider Barclays Group on hand for those that could benefit from the Investment Bank or Corporate Bank, for example.
We have a team of over 200 based in Monaco, and as a global business we collaborate with our colleagues around the world to support our clients’ needs wherever they are. As well as being established in locations across Europe and Asia, we see ourselves as a hub for clients in emerging Europe and emerging markets, such as the Middle East, and Africa.
With the year 2024 coming to an end, how would you describe it for investors in this very unstable global context?
Valerie Genin: Despite a volatile geopolitical backdrop, 2024 turned out to be a surprisingly positive year for investors. On the macroeconomic front, our expectations from last year of lower growth, lower inflation, and lower interest rates have largely materialized.
Equity markets in particular, exceeded most analysts’ expectations. This strength has been driven by strong corporate fundamentals, and supportive macroeconomic backdrop.
Let’s note the decoupling between market performance and fundamental data sometimes. Take Germany for instance: while it faced a technical recession in 2023 and most of 2024, the DAX still delivered an impressive +15,5% return YTD – an indicator of the resilience and complexity of today’s markets.
However, it’s worth noting that with such robust performance across asset classes, valuations are becoming increasingly stretched.
To what extent does the Trump victory as President-elect impact your outlook for the markets for the next few months?
Valerie Genin: The Trump victory has introduced both clarity and uncertainty. One hand, the electoral outcome was decisive and undisputed, removing the kind of ambiguity that often destabilizes markets.
On the other, the President-elect has proposed substantial shifts in policy – particularly around tariffs, corporate taxation, and fiscal spending – that will likely have profound macroeconomic implications.
Much will depend on how these policies are implemented. Early 2025, especially Q1, will be critical for assessing the direction and magnitude of these changes.
That said, if we strip away the political noise and focus on the fundamentals, the US economy appears well-positioned for continued strength in the months ahead, particularly when compared to Europe, where growth and policy coordination face greater challenges.
What are the biggest risks that you foresee for 2025?
Valerie Genin: The interplay of politics and geopolitics remains a key risk for 2025. Under a Trump presidency, international dynamics could shift in unpredictable ways, heightening market volatility and potentially disrupting key macroeconomic fundamentals. This uncertainty is further compounded by ongoing fiscal and structural challenges.
One of the most pressing concern is debt sustainability. The fiscal strain from pandemic-era spending is now becoming apparent, particularly in economies like the US, where significant tax cuts may exacerbate public debt levels. In Europe, France exemplifies a region grappling with structural inefficiencies and political fragmentation, which could hinder necessary fiscal reforms.
As investors, it’s vital to navigate these risks with a clear focus on fundamentals while remaining agile in response to the ever-changing macro and geopolitical landscape.
Have you noticed an investment shift for your clientele in Monaco?
Valerie Genin: Throughout 2024, global investors have capitalized on the attractive returns offered by cash instruments, given the favorable interest rate environment. Many of our clients have also strategically deployed capital into fixed income assets, both public and private, to lock in these yields. This trend reflects a broader desire for stability in an uncertain geopolitical climate.
Looking ahead, some of President-elect Trump’s announced policies (such as fiscal expansion and tax reforms) may create an inflationary environment and have an impact on monetary policies. We could see higher USD rates for longer than initially thought. However, much depends on the execution of these policies and the continued independence of the federal reserve.
Across the Atlantic, Europe faces its own set of challenges and potential responses. Monetary policy remains a critical tool, and we could see rate cuts accelerating in order to stimulate growth. Additionally, a weaker euro, should it persist, might serve as a natural counterbalance to any tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration, providing a cushion for European exporters.
Our Monaco-based clients are navigating these dynamics with a focus on diversification, balancing exposure across asset classes and geographies to adapt to this evolving macroeconomic landscape.
