The Monaco Economic Board (MEB), Banque Populaire Méditerranée and Gramaglia Assurances organized a new conference "Country Risk: Analysis and Business Opportunities" led by Julien Marcilly, Chief Economist of Coface.
After taking stock of 2018, the year in which the economy underwent a general slowdown, Julien Marcilly underlines that capital has tended to take refuge in developed countries even though Italy has been affected by some investor mistrust.
This year of European elections highlights the political uncertainties hovering over the continent: skepticism towards institutions, Brexit but also pessimism. The indirect effects of environmental protectionism and the US-China trade war are expected to be particularly felt in 2019.
As for the developing countries, the risk weighs especially on those whose economy is turned to the outside as Turkey, Chile, some Eastern European countries or Africa where the tensions rise.
In conclusion, despite the uncertainties that weigh on 2019, Coface has improved the rating of 9 countries for a single degradation. Sign that the resilience capacity of the global economy is still conceivable.
